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This surely should not continue. It makes no sense that it persists. And yet, it does.

A Historic Triumph Defying Expectations

Aston Villa entered Saturday's Premier League encounter at Chelsea aiming for a historic record of 11 consecutive wins, matching runs set in the distant past. For much of the match, this feat seemed improbable, as Chelsea controlled proceedings, took the lead, and could have added to their advantage. But, Chelsea have shown vulnerability when ahead, especially at home, while Villa now possess a remarkable habit of securing away victories after falling behind.

First, Ollie Watkins leveled the scores, the ball cannoning in off his shin and the post following his first effort was blocked by Robert Sánchez. Later on, he secured the winner with a deft header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. The forward might believe a bit of luck was due, and there's no question the equalizing goal involved a significant element of good fortune. Currently, however, Lady Luck is smiling on Villa.

The Statistics Behind an Unlikely Run

The last nine of these 11 straight wins have been by a solitary goal. They have kept a clean sheet in only one of those matches. Their underlying metrics have been superior in just six of those fixtures, and in a couple of those, the margin was minimal. Their last five away Premier League victories have all come from behind. This pattern seems unsustainable, yet observers have been saying that for weeks, and Villa keep on winning. The key question is whether their outcomes will eventually match their displays or if their level of play can improve to match the points haul.

This should not be possible, but everyone has been saying that for weeks and Villa keep on winning.

A Core Trait: Belief

Fighting back is not just a trait of this season. Over the past 3 seasons, no side has gained more points when trailing than Villa's 54; Eighteen of those have been secured this season, fifty percent more than the second-placed team, Sunderland. This season, Villa players from the bench have scored 9 goals. Two key observations can be made about Villa under their manager.

• First, they possess a deep-rooted self-belief that means no deficit ever feels beyond them. This is, in part, a virtuous cycle: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they believe they can do it once more.
• Secondly, Emery has proven very skilled at influencing games with his substitutions.

The Emery Effect

While Chelsea had the better of the expected goals 2.1-1.4, Villa were the dominant force from the moment, around the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple substitution. Watkins replaced Malen, who had found it difficult with few chances. Suddenly, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's runs in behind created issues. Amadou Onana and Jadon Sancho also came on, bolstering the center and providing the flank presence they had lacked earlier.

Chelsea had ten attempts to Villa's none before the changes; afterwards, Villa created eleven opportunities to Chelsea's 4. By the final whistle, Villa were commanding and could have won more comfortably. Once again, opposing manager Maresca struggled to respond as the game slipped away; the sense remains that he is more proficient at devising a game plan with time to prepare than making adjustments in the moment.

Individual Brilliance

Villa have cultivated a happy habit of individuals producing moments of sensational quality to alter games. Rogers has scored crucial goals at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him shifting the ball onto his favored foot and whipping a finish home has become a seasonal theme. It was the winger who changed the game after coming on at Leeds. Watkins changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of defenders like Ezri Konsa and Lindelof on Saturday were also vital. At present, it's not always the entire team playing brilliantly, but sufficient players within it delivering to earn the victories.

What Comes Next?

Will they be able to maintain this run? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season approaches its midway point, they have to be viewed as part of the title race, certainly more so than club world champions Chelsea or defending champions Liverpool. The upcoming away fixture at Arsenal will be a significant examination of that status. Villa beat Arsenal earlier this month, a match in which they not only won the xG but posted an xG 40% higher than any other side has managed against Arsenal in the league this season.

The Gunners have since put together their own sequence of single-goal victories, winning three in a row without ever being wholly convincing. The upcoming clash will be a challenge for both teams – and if Villa secure a twelfth game in a row, it would become almost impossible to dismiss their championship pedigree.