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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd