Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to head off any future leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
