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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning saw its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another independent nation and abduct its leader – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.