A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
